COVID-19 Discussion

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I had a thought the other day and I have no idea how practical it is since my bio & chem suck badly
But it sure seems like there would be a big market for an “at home” test for this, flu, and lord knows what else. Something along the lines of the home pregnancy kind of test where maybe you spit on a strip and it changes color or something if youre positive. Even if it gives a small percentage of false positives would be ok (just no false negatives where it misses people who ARE infected)

Is this idea totally nuts ?

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“… the (UK) government was in negotiations to buy an antibody test “as simple as a pregnancy test, which can tell whether you have had the disease. It’s early days, but if it works as its proponents claim, then we will buy literally hundreds of thousands of these kits as soon as practicable.”

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ah ok so not totally nuts

I’ve been curious to see how the human trials in Seattle are progressing
They seem to be first to the point of human trials

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In all fairness: took them long enough.

Only AFTER their “let’s just leave it to herd immunity” approach got universally panned and valuable time lost did they change course.

The overwhelming scientific evidence is that it is almost certain that there will be a second (and third and fourth) wave of new cases in China now that liberty restrictions have been removed. This is for several reasons:

  1. More cases will be imported into the country once their borders are re-opened.

Not quite correct as China is likely to strongly control and isolate people coming in - after all they do NOT rely on self-isolation.

  1. There are 1.3 billion people in China. How certain are we that there really are no new cases? Access to any form of healthcare is limited in huge areas of the country. Almost certainly there actually are ongoing cases that are simply not being detected.

Considering that China beat down SARS and now seemingly SARS-2 my money would be on China.

I’m a radiologist.

And I’m happy to acknowledge your superior knowledge there …

Additionally, a “quick CT scan” underplays the risks and costs involved. If the patient truly has COVID-19 then they are exposing the radiographers and support staff to the disease. They will contaminate the scanner. If they didn’t have it before they were scanned, they may well catch it from the table.

… but strongly object to your depiction of the Chinese as complete idiots. I would assume the patient wears a mask, the scanners are disinfected between each run, and the staff are in protective gear (that was actually said in the report).

We shouldn’t put China up on a pedestal regarding their handling of the disease.

No - but we should acknowledge that their approach works.

There are many reports from people placed in lockdown about quite how serious / terrifying / life-destroying it was.

What do people expect? The Holiday Inn and room service???

For instance,… This quote stands out:
But people are not thinking critically. They do not understand that if we had human rights, democracy and freedom, we would have learned about what happened in Wuhan one month earlier. And the first whistleblower would not have died for nothing.

Really? Now who is not thinking critically? There is a doctor who suspects a flu-like illness might be caused by a new virus. How long will it be before he is taking seriously in the UK? How often would he be warned about not causing a panic with unproven allegations? How often would he be dismissed as a nut case?

The secrecy and suppression will have an effect in China, with people demanding more accountability.

Maybe the UK should do the same?

Sorry - they haven’t covered themselves in glory there. In fact, they wasted valuable time before they did a complete 180.

NOT the most trustworthy source.

Pretty much on a par with Trump.

Dear God - got any evidence for that assumption? As children are often asymptomatic carriers they DO infect others more often BECAUSE they are asymptomatic carriers.

The data from South Korea indicate that the virus infects people of all ages the same. There is no indication that kids are less infectious. I would rather assume that kids being hugged and kissed a lot (especially by their grand-parents) results in them being distinctly MORE likely to infect someone than an ugly bum like me.

Sure. Because that’s what’s most important.

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@MarkusWinter you’re not a doctor. Read the paper I linked. The evidence states that children are not as infectious. Being asymptomatic does reduce your infectious ness because you are not shedding anywhere near as many virions. That is a fact.

SARS is nowhere near as infectious plus it is more fatal which, paradoxically limits its propagation.

Now is not the time for political side swiping. Boris Johnson has been constantly flanked by our best medical scientific minds and is being completely transparent in the logic of his decisions. Unlike Trump his decisions are being made based on the best evidence we have from respected scientists, not armchair experts.

It is important. There needs to be a society to return to after this. I’m not saying this as a privileged white doctor, I’m saying it as someone who’s brother and sister have both now lost their jobs as a direct response to this.

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@MarkusWinter you’re not a doctor. Read the paper I linked. The evidence states that children are not as infectious. Being asymptomatic does reduce your infectious ness because you are not shedding anywhere near as many virions. That is a fact.

Actually I am. Not an M.D. but the kind that has to do 5 years of research and prove his supervisor wrong to get his doctorate instead of spending three weeks in the library as most MDs I know do (there is the occasional exception). Which I was able to do because I have a very good understanding of how Evolution works, unlike my supervisor. And unlike an idiot M.D. in Germany spouting nonsense all over the social media landscape.

That kids are asymptomatic but infectious makes them the perfect vehicle for infection.That they produce less particles is more than made up for by nobody knowing they are infectious and the way people interact with them. As I told you.

SARS is nowhere near as infectious plus it is more fatal which, paradoxically limits its propagation.

That’s NOT paradoxical, that’s how Evolution works and why pathogens become less deadly as they adapt more and more to their host and optimise their spread.

That’s also not an argument against what I was saying. SARS was a “trial run” that prepared China on what to do and make sure they have infrastructure in place when SARS2 hit. Which they had because they kept that infrastructure.

It is important. There needs to be a society to return to after this.

And I’m saying I hope you do not have to deal with a child that at some point realizes that it infected his gran and is “responsible” for her death. The economic fallout will be brutal - but so will the psychological one. And the sooner you hit the spread of the virus the less the fallout will be in economic terms, psychological problems, and lives lost. Letting people go to work (beside essential services like providing food) will just extend and exasperate the problem. The UK and everyone in Europe and the US waited far too long - and that is the real political scandal.

There is no need to panic - but a massive need to deal with it. The asian countries have shown how to do it. Even the place in Italy that was at the center of the Italian outbreak has stopped the virus. While Boris and Co did NOT follow scientific advice but some crackpot alternative ideas (and were rightly ridiculed for it). Johnson HAD the facts and data. Johnson HAD scientific advice. But chose to go for “herd immunity” anyway and do nothing. It took nearly a week before they changed course - maybe you should not forget THAT in your praise of Johnson and your criticism of China. If the UK had acted faster then how much damage could have been avoided?

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Chinese investigators have exonerated Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old doctor who was reprimanded after trying to raise the alarm about the coronavirus in December. Li died in hospital in January after contracting Covid-19

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FWIW Singapore and Hong Kong both imposed severe restrictions very quickly and have, at least according to the reports I’ve seen, had a very flat curve of infection. Taiwan also did many of the same things but is now seeing a roller coaster where infections are rising up a bit as people return home.

And there is a great illustration of how reacting sooner rather than later effects the overall infection & mortality.

What I read & saw last night about this is that children and young people may be more at risk than first believed and that being asymptomatic doesnt seem to correlate with not being infectious with this particular virus.

It’s darned worrisome

EDIT : interview with Larry Brilliant who worked to help defeat smallpox and several other diseases

There’s also a link to his 2006 Ted talk in this article again focused on stopping pandemics. He’s also the scientific consultant for Contagion which pretty accurately represents whats currently transpiring

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Good write up on Covid-19 and what we know in the Atlantic

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Two excellent articles:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now (btw this article is from last week but was spot on)

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

and for balance two demonstrating utter stupidity:

Coronavirus: Wetherspoons boss causes outrage after insisting he will keep chain open as ‘virus doesn’t spread in pubs’

Brazilian church wins court battle to remain open despite coronavirus pandemic

My take on “The devil works with fear” is “Nowadays the devil finds working with stupidity much more effective”.

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There’s a saying - Cant cure stupid
Evolution will do the job in this case

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Just read this:

Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt has said NHS staff treating coronavirus patients must have the protective equipment they need. He shared his concerns that not all NHS staff were receiving the correct personal protective equipment (PPE) on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

“We must sort this out. We are asking people to put their own lives at risk on the NHS frontline. We have all seen the terrible scenes as to what is happening in Italy,” he said. “It is absolutely heartbreaking when NHS frontline professionals don’t have the equipment that they need.”

He added: “I think thegovernment has done a lot in the last week. I think they have unblocked the supply chains, but there is this question about whether it is the right equipment.”

Lisa Anderson, a consultant cardiologist at St George’s hospital in London, echoed Hunt’s concerns. She said the government had changed the rules so they were no longer compliant with World Health Organization recommendations, which required medics to wear a full gown and visor.

She said that since Monday, staff in the NHS only had to wear a simple face mask, short gloves and a pinafore apron. “This is not just about the risk to ourselves and our families. We are travelling home on the tube, on buses,” she told the Today programme.

The UK government are fucking imbeciles that lie through their teeth - and then try to take credit for their lies. Unbelievable.

I’m not sure whether I’m more enraged by the politicians or the idiots believing them.

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And lest we forget how slow and late the UK response was:

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I think Dr Fauci is the one who said if you’re reacting to what you see today you’re 2 weeks late
Basically what we see to day was set in motion up to 2 weeks ago and so in the intervening weeks something else is coming
The study that showed the difference in response between Philadelphia & St Louis is a really great read about how effective social distancing and early detection and response works

Recently I listened to a report and it detailed how China sent people to hte USA to see what was going on and their advice was ominous. That things were NOT 100% locked down in various cities was to them a crisis in the making. And these folks had just gone through all this in China and saw how timid measures had limited effect.

I worry that in Canada our response may be too light handed as well

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The sooner and harder you hit the better in the long run. New Zealand’s response is amateurish too.

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The article “Coronavirus: Why you must act now” nicely shows that what you see is smaller by a factor of 10 to 100 than what is really there.

And a nice graphic on the effect of isolation:

Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01
Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-011360×816 371 KB

2 Likes
78

and there is a time lag to it :slight_smile:
thats a big thing that seems to be unrealized is that the measures arent effective IMMEDIATELY - they take time to NOT cause more cases and on the day the measures are implemented it will take 1 - 2 weeks before we can tell IF they are working as intended

A slow or delayed response is not going to show up immediately but will show up in the kind of spikes in cases seen in same places like Italy & various states in the USA
And by then its too darned late and the health system is in jeopardy

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From Wednesday we are on Level 4 lockdown … which pretty much means no change for me, except there won’t be house hunting at the weekends.

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There is a saying in Biology that nothing makes sense unless you see it through the eyes of Evolution.

For human societies, the saying could be that nothing makes sense unless you see it through the eyes of human nature:

“At an early stage, the Italian government prohibited flights from China to Italy. This was actually to prevent the coronavirus from being introduced. It is possible that this measure helped to spread the virus unhindered.

Because many passengers went to other European airports instead and flew from there to Italy. The World Health Organisation, on the other hand, had advised that passengers from China should be quarantined on arrival. That was no longer possible.”

DOH!

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Question:

I do not understand how our hospitals can handle 670,000 flu cases every year, but a few thousand COVID-19 cases overwhelm the system?

Answer:

I do not understand how McDonalds can serve two billion hamburgers every year but when I order five million at the drive thru it overwhelms the system.

There was a sign in a shop window::

ONE pack of toilet paper: $3.50

TWO packs of toilet paper: $99

THAT’s the way … :wink: